The seemingly unending election season will finally come to close Tuesday, a turbulent campaign for president that cast a long shadow down both parties’ tickets.
Here, a by-the-minute syllabus of what to watch for once polls close:
7:00pm
Indiana
Donald Trump should win the Hoosier state handily.
Key Senate Race, Congressman Todd Young v. Former Senator Evan Bayh, a seat that the GOP needs to hold to retain the majority.
Two House races of note, IN-2 Congresswoman Jackie Walorski (R) and open seat and IN-9 The Todd Young (R) Open Seat. Should the GOP fail to hold both, this would be the early sign of a Democratic wave in the House.
Virginia
Virginia is the only state where Secretary Clinton is outperforming President Obama’s 2012 numbers. Should she lose, which we don’t expect, Donald Trump will be the next President.
Two House races give insight into the potential for a Democratic take over of the Chamber; VA-10 in the Washington DC suburbs where first term member Barbara Comstock faces a tough challenge and a tanking top of the ticket. This is a toss-up seat the Democrats must win to take back the gavel. Virginia’s 5th district stretches from Charlottesville all the way to the North Carolina border. Congressman Hurd captured 61% of the vote in 2012. Should this seat flip, it portends a long night for the GOP
7:30pm
North Carolina
A critical state for both Presidential candidates. Secretary Clinton is expected to crush Donald Trump in Charlotte, Durham and the Research Triangle and get crushed in the rural counties. Early voting is down for Democrats from 2012 levels, particularly with large African American populations in Greensboro’s Guilford County and Winston-Salem’s Forsyth County. GOP early vote totals are better than 2012, though unclear how many are crossovers from Research Triangle voting for Clinton – or Democratic men voting Trump.
The Senate race between GOP Senator Richard Burr and Democrat Deborah Ross has been close all summer. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Burr up 1.6 points. Should the GOP hold this seat prospects to retain the majority brighten.
Ohio
In order to keep Secretary Clinton’s vote total below President Obama 2012 number, Trump has to over perform Romney in Ohio’s rural counties, think Licking and Knox and keep Clinton’s lead below around 200k voters in Cuyahoga County and 100k in Franklin, home to THE Ohio State University. If the vote is within 0.25% an automatic recount ensues. An interesting aside, the Ohio GOP has cut ties with the Trump campaign.
What was once thought to be the marquee Senate race in the county has failed to develop as GOP Senator Rob Portman has been up over former Governor Ted Strickland since late July and going into election day polls have him up 14.. If this seat were to flip on election night it’s Katy bar the door for the Senate GOP majority.
There are no House races of significance this cycle in Ohio.
8:00pm
Florida
From a federal perspective, Florida represents the trifecta of critical Presidential, Senate and as many as 7 House races. Donald Trump must win Florida for him to have any pathway to 270 electoral votes. Should Secretary Clinton win, game over.
In the Senate, the GOP is counting on current office holder Marco Rubio to defeat Congressman Patrick Murphy in order for the GOP to have a hope to retain their majority.
In the House, if the GOP does not win FL-2 in Panhandle, the Democrats could take the majority. FL-18 is another seat around Palm Beach the GOP is eyeing as a potential pick-up. If they win the 18th, House is almost guaranteed safe for GOP. FL-10 is in middle of I-4 Corridor and almost guaranteed Democratic pickup. FL-26 and 27 are canaries in coal mine for potential Democratic wave.
Illinois
No race at the top of the ticket with Secretary Clinton expected to crush Donald Trump in this very blue state.
Polling in the Senate race has had incumbent Mark Kirk down since Labor Day, we expect that trend to continue and for Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth to pick up this seat. Should Senator Kirk pull off what can only be called a stunning upset, the GOP will assuredly maintain the Senate majority.
In the House, two key races in IL-10 and IL-12. In IL-10, if GOP Congressman Dold, who won with 51% in 2014 hold this seat in the Chicago suburbs, the House majority looks pretty safe. Should freshman Congressman Mike Bost in IL-12 lose this could signal a big Democratic wave and put the GOP majority in jeopardy.
Kansas
The focus in Kansas will be in the Kansas City suburbs where GOP congressman Kevin Yoder is facing a spirited challenger. For the Democrats to make it to picking up 31 seats, races like KS-3 need to fall their way.
Maine
One of only two states to award their electoral votes by Congressional district, the ME-2 northern seat is the largest district east of the Mississippi River and home to prototypical white, blue-collar Trump voters. Not critical for Trump’s 270 arithmetic, but a good bellwether – if Trump loses here, not a great omen for Trump’s path to 270.
Missouri
Key Senate race here that GOP needs to win to have a path to retaining majority. Democrats have their best recruit in several cycles and the GOP incumbent is facing an anti-establishment wave.
No contested House races and Trump should be fine.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire will tell us a lot. A key Senate race which the GOP needs to hold on to and likely the first GOP House incumbent to lose. The state is not critical for Trump, but a bad omen if he loses. If NH is called early for Clinton (and she has already likely won Virginia by the time they call NH), Trump’s window is almost closed – it would also mean that she won comfortably in a borderline swing state.
GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte is running away from Trump – never a good omen for the top of the ticket in a battleground state. This face is the definition of “Toss-Up.”
If GOP Congressman Frank Guinta wins in NH-01, after self-inflicted wounds and the NRCC pulling its ad buy, the House GOP majority is 100% safe.
Pennsylvania
The Philadelphia suburbs (Chester, Bucks, Montgomery) will be key to watch. Romney did decently here almost pulling even (and still lost state by 5 points). If Trump badly under-performs Romney here (which he will), hard to see his path forward here. Obama beat Romney by 450K votes in Philadelphia – Trump will tighten that, but not by much.
Pat Toomey is running a great race, though running with gale force winds in his face. The GOP needs to hold 2 of the 3 House races in PA-6, the open seats in PA-8, where a Fitzpatrick is trying to replace a Fitzpatrick and PA-16.
A potential big issue for Democrats: a Philadelphia transit strike began yesterday morning, which if not resolved by election day could depress inner-city and suburban turnout.
9:00pm
Arizona
We should have a decent sense of the House margin by this point in the night – and may even know if it is a Clinton blowout or Trump has a path to 270. Arizona will likely underscore one of these. If Clinton wins here, game over for Trump. GOP is up in early voting, though down by about 50% from 2012 margin (Romney won state by 9 points). As much as 70% of vote could be cast early in Arizona. Obamacare a major issue benefiting Trump here where we suspect he will win.
If it is a Democratic wave, John McCain could be swept out though that seems increasingly unlikely has he has consistently been up double digits in polls.
AZ-2 is a good bellwether. Republican Martha McSallay only won her 2014 race by 161 votes in Tucson, though she is running a tough race well ahead of Trump.
Colorado
If there is a Trump upside surprise, it is probably here. Trump winning Colorado would scramble Clinton’s arithmetic to 270. The Denver suburbs (Aurora) are fertile ground for the Democrats over the weekend, Democrats stretched their early vote lead over Republicans to 31K votes, including a 1,500-vote net gain in Denver, the state’s most heavily Democratic turf. This is a big problem for the GOP because the Republicans were UP at this point by about 19K votes in the early vote in 2012 (and Romney still lost by 5 points). Of course, registered Democrats could be voting for Trump – but that breaks both ways with Registered Republicans also crossing over for Clinton.
Senator Michael Bennet is expected to cruise to reelection. If Mike Coffman holds his CO-6 seat, very hard to see how the Democrats net 31. The flip side of that would be if the Democrats pick-off the rural Western Slope-based CO-3 home of GOP Congressman Scott Tipton the Democratic wave could be back.
This is entirely mail-in balloting, so the vote should come relatively quickly.
Michigan
A Trump win here would likely trigger a political tsunami and mean most of the pollsters were completely wrong. Conversely, if this is called early for Clinton around 10 p.m., Trump’s path is almost gone. Parts of state are in Central Time, though most of state closes at 8 p.m. ET so should get results relatively quickly.
Congressman Tim Walberg’s MI-7 and Congressman Michael Bishop’s MI-8 are potential pickups for the House Democrats. GOP Congressman Dan Benishek in MI-1 is a good bellwether – the second-biggest district east of the Mississippi River in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, it shares many demographic traits with ME-2 though is more Republican. Democrats need this for 31.
Minnesota
The action here will be “down ballot” with a potential for a GOP pick up and two very tough GOP holds.
Duluth and the iron range are the prototypical demographic for Trump in this rare swing seat in MN-8 represented by Democratic Congressman Richard Nolan. If the GOP can pick this up, the House should stay in Republican hands. Retiring Congressman John Kline’s MN-2 and Congressman Erik Paulson’s MN-3 are the Minneapolis and St. Paul suburbs where the GOP is trying to hang on in an environment where college educated white women are fleeing the top of the ticket.
Nebraska
A major battleground for both the electoral college and the House majority is the district around Omaha NE-2 because it is one of the very few that also awards a single Electoral Vote in the Presidential.
On the House side, the money has poured into the Omaha suburbs as Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford tries to hang on. NE-2 represents one of the few House seats the Democrats are defending. A GOP win here would all but ensure a GOP majority in the House.
New York
With both candidates on the top of the ticket claiming residency in New York, one could have expected a tighter battle. That didn’t happen. The game is the House majority.
There are as many as six seats in play with the GOP defending all. These districts stretch from Long Island NY-1 held by Freshman Congressman Lee Zeldin, the Hudson Valley’s NY-19 home to GOP Congressman Chris Gibson, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s NY-21 in the Adirondacks, and in the western part of the state with Tom Reed’s NY-23 and John Katko’s NY-24. The Democrats need to win almost all of these to get to 31.
Texas
A state that will go for Trump and Bush, no not that one, George P. Bush will win his election for Texas land Commissioner.
Of the 36 Texas Congressional districts only one that is competitive. GOP congressman Will Hurd in TX-23 is facing an uphill climb in this predominately Hispanic district across the southwestern part of Texas in the San Antonio and El Paso suburbs. The GOP feels they can lose this seat and still keep the majority.
Wisconsin
Similar to Michigan, should Trump win, it would be a shock to the political establishment and he probably win be President. He needs to run up totals in in the northern district of Sean Duffy and for the GOP to come home in the “WOW counties” around Milwaukee.
GOP Senator Ron Johnson faces former Senator Russ Feingold in a race that has tightened over the last week. Feingold still leads, as he has since announcing his intention to run, but if Johnson pulls an upset the Senate GOP majority looks pretty good.
Retiring GOP Congressman Reid Ribble’s WI-8 is a bellwether district around Green Bay that the Democrats need to win if they are going to net 31 seats.
10:00pm
(The Witching Hour, as networks will begin calling states)
Iowa
This is the Obama state most likely to flip to Trump. Trump needs to roll-up monster numbers in the rural west of the state. Early voting is looking very good for GOP and we would expect Trump to win here.
Chuck Grassley will cruise to re-election.
There are also two tossup House races. IA-1, represented by GOP Congressman Rodney Blum looks poised to flip to the Democrats. IA-3’s GOP Congressman David Young, won his first term by 53% in the Des Moines based district. He faces stiff competition to return.
Nevada
Another trifecta state at the federal level with competitive races across the board. 70% of the ballots will be cast before election day, so this could be called pretty quickly. The early vote numbers are about parallel to 2012 when Obama won state by 6.5 points. Keep in mind that Trump needs to far eclipse Romney in rural parts of state like Washoe County. These areas are heavily populated by LDS Church/Mormons, who are anti-Trump. Green Jill Stein not on ballot, which helps Clinton.
It is very tough to see how the GOP holds the Senate without picking up the Harry Reid open seat. It is the only competitive Democratically held seat this cycle.
Two key House races where the GOP is on defense are Joe Heck’s open seat in NV-3 and freshman Congressman Cresent Hardy’s NV-4. These are two of the marquee House races that the Democrats must win.
Utah
This could tell us if we have to wait until January 4 to determine the Presidency due to the very plausible chance that Independent Evan McMullin could win the state and keep Utah’s 6 electoral votes away from Trump.
GOP congresswoman Mia Love from UT-04 had looked vulnerable earlier in the cycle, she seems to have solidified her base and is expected to be reelected. House Democrats would need beat her to take the House Majority.
11:00pm
California
With the presidential race a forgone conclusion. The focus here shift, on a federal level to the battle for the House majority.
The GOP House majority should be mathematically safe by now, though if it is not look to GOP Congressman Jeff Denham in CA-10, GOP Congressman David Valadao in CA-21, GOP Congressman Steve Knight in CA-25, and GOP Congressman Darrel Issa in CA-49. All four districts are GOP-held districts with very high Latino populations that could be the 31st seats for the Democrats.
1:00am
Alaska
It takes a really long time to count the vote in Alaska, which also easily wins the award for toughest state to accurately poll. Third party candidates always do well in The Last Frontier, which could have a House pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.
