Each week between now and November 8, Dentons’ public policy team will mine exhaustive demographic data, financial disclosures, and public surveys to synthesize a comprehensive election forecast for every federal contest.
This week in the race to 270 electoral college votes, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is projected to capture at least 21 states, notching some 239 electoral votes, while rival Republican businessman Donald Trump is tracking to win 24 states–though they represent only 186 electoral votes.
According to the most recent data, eight states (and Maine’s second congressional district) are toeing the line in the toss-up column. Six of the them went Democratic in the last presidential contest. Together they represent another 113 electoral votes. The math means that Trump, if the election were held today, could afford to lose only Florida (with 29 votes) or a combination of two other states (e.g., Pennsylvania and Colorado, Ohio and Nevada, or North Carolina and Arizona).
Read the full report (.PDF), which delves also into Senate and House contests, here.
